If we had picked one Democrat to have the best chance to survive out of the Toss Up column, it probably wouldn't be Rep. Anthony Brindisi (NY-22), who sits in a district Trump carried handily twice. But in a presidential cycle with plenty of voters who aren't immersed in the policy weeds, these attacks worked. 14 Public polls underestimated Republicans up and down the ballot. The DCCC/HMP spent a combined $9.8 million on these two races. Very few non-incumbent Democrats ran ahead of Biden in their districts, but one was Cameron Webb (VA-05), who touted support from sheriffs in his ads and flipped the script by accusing his GOP opponent of voting to cut police funding. But in hindsight, our March House ratings, which had 20 Democrats and just five Republicans in Toss Up, wound up being more accurate than our final pre-election ratings, which had 17 Republicans and nine Democrats in that category. But at the time, neither the NRCC nor the CLF was putting their money behind their talk in press releases. 0 All cycle, the NRCC, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY-21) worked local trenches to clear fields for these recruits and, if necessary, help them get through tough primaries. Dem All Rights Reserved. Personally I expect these numbers to shift a bit in the Republicans favor even if 2020 is an otherwise good year for Dems. Ind, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 (202) 739-8525 info@cookpolitical.com. The Cook Political Report; Ratings; House HOUSE 2020 House Race Ratings Nov 2, 2020 PDF Document. This kind of analysis will undoubtedly lead to changes in the way pollsters approach future races, and perhaps some innovative methodologies that could be road-tested in 2021's off-year elections. • In 2018, Democrats ran up the score by recruiting political outsiders, especially women with national security backgrounds, to challenge GOP "insiders." Now that all 50 states have certified their results (save for one House race in New York's 22nd CD), it's a natural time for a reckoning on what transpired down-ballot. After all, a minuscule number of House Democrats actually identify as "democratic socialists" or have advocated reducing police funding. Cook Political Report'sfinal prediction for the composition of the House following the 2020 election should be music to Democrats' ears. But this time, instead of a strong majority, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is left with 222 seats and virtually no margin for error — especially with Reps. Cedric Richmond (LA-02), Deb Haaland (NM-01) and Marcia Fudge (OH-11) set to decamp for administration posts. With amazing consistency, Republican candidates outperformed private surveys by mid-single digits. RATINGS SUMMARY. The Cook Political Report has updated its outlook for 12 House races. Likely These included some big upsets: Republicans held every vulnerable seat in Texas, picked up four Biden/Clinton-won seats in California and even picked up two Miami area seats Clinton had carried by more than 15 points in 2016. Democrats’ odds in the race for control of the House are seeing yet another uptick, according to a new analysis from the Cook Political Report.. Rep Republicans won all 27 House races the Cook Political Report rated as “toss-ups” in its 2020 election analysis, in addition to picking up seven of … In the Cook report… Both parties invested accordingly, but the down-ballot anti-Trump "suburban revolt" never materialized on Election Night. But Trump's presence atop the ballot did something else as well. : These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. But he fought to a near-tie by playing up his war against Spectrum, a much-loathed cable and internet provider in Upstate New York and his support for a local flatware manufacturer. So, what happened? Ind, 15 2 • These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage. “House Judiciary Committee Chair Jerry Nadler intends to reissue a subpoena for former White House Counsel Don McGahn’s testimony next year, confirming that Democrats intend to press ahead with its long legal battle to compel testimony from a star witness in special counsel Robert Mueller’s obstruction of justice investigation of President Trump,” Politico reports. Cook generally starts by favoring incumbents and then as candidates are declared, polls come out and fundraising numbers are released they shift the results. October 29: Mississippi moves from Safe to Likely Republican. 2020 Elections; BREAKING: Cook Political Report Shifts VA05 From “Leans Republican” to “Toss Up,” Calls Cameron Webb “Perhaps Dems’ Best House Candidate Anywhere In the Country” "In VA05, Dems may have found their own 'unicorn'," … “District-level polls are full of danger signs for Trump,” David Wasserman, the … Democrats are poised to retain and expand their House majority, The Cook Political Report predicts just a day ahead of the 2020 election.Cook issued its final House race predictions for the 2020 election on Monday, and all eight of its ratings changes moved in Democrats' favor. • And, as more and more October polls showed Biden with commanding leads, it's possible that more voters went to the polls expecting Biden to win and opted for a GOP "check" against Democrats going too far left, much as in 2016. It now sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election. Cook Report shifts 12 House races, all but one toward Democrats By Joseph Choi - 10/21/20 10:43 AM EDT 315 The Cook Political Report on … To be sure, there were a few outlier polls that got it right. 18. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report made its final House forecast Monday, a day before the Nov. 3 elections, indicating that a combination of factors … Why? These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning. Overall, the "core four" outside groups — DCCC, HMP, NRCC and CLF — spent $442 million on House races ($226 million by Democrats to $216 million for Republicans). Texas’s move to the toss up column comes a day after the Cook Political Report's House editor Dave Wasserman declared over Twitter that Biden is favored to win the 2020 … Ind, 9 In 2022, our initial instinct is that a typical midterm backlash against a new party in the White House might be mitigated by a retreat of casual Trump voters without Trump on the ballot. Staggeringly, $196 million of that went to 30 races that didn't turn out to be very close (within five points), including $42 million the parties spent on races Republicans ultimately won by double digits. Click on bars to see solid seats breakdown, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037, FL-26 In 2018, Democrats ran up the score by recruiting political outsiders, especially women with national security backgrounds, to challenge GOP "insiders." Had they invested more, we would have been likelier to change our rating. After the latest update from Kern County, Valadao’s lead of 2,644 votes in the race shrank on Friday to 1,618 votes.The number of votes left to count from Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties has dwindled, the lead was enough for Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report and NBC News contributor to call the race. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. David Wasserman. The Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce our 2020 House district databook, a one-stop shop for statistics on demographics and recent election results in all 435 congressional districts. In a new report by the nonpartisan election forecaster the Cook Political Report, seven House races have shifted in the Democratic Party's favor, ... Monday November 16, 2020. It helped that these candidates didn't look like Trump or GOP leaders, and many (though not all) sounded quite different from Trump too. In 2018, the only opportunity for swing voters (including plenty of suburban women) to vent their displeasure with Trump was to vote against a Republican on the congressional ballot. The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037, Five Takeaways From Our 2020 House Forecast — and Three Resolutions for 2021 and Beyond. 2020 House Vote Tracker | The Cook Political Report 2020 National House Vote Tracker By David Wasserman, Sophie Andrews, Leo Saenger, Lev Cohen, Ally Flinn, and Griff Tatarsky Please note that results are not yet final except where noted in the table below. But as life (hopefully) returns to normal, we'll recommit ourselves to cultivating as many relationships with local journalists and state-based sources as DC-based consultants and pollsters, who can often get trapped in an echo chamber and miss important signals. • For example, neither party spent a dime in South Texas, where Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (TX-15) hung on by just three points. Cook Political Report on Friday moved its outlook for 20 House races toward Democrats.. Why it matters: President Trump's troubles are spilling over to affect Republicans down the ballot — which could foreshadow a blue wave in November. 0 Medicare-for-All proponents Kara Eastman and Dana Balter lost to GOP Reps. Don Bacon (NE-02) and John Katko (NY-24) by five and ten points respectively, despite Biden carrying both districts by seven points. Copyright © 2018 by Cook Political Report. Although 2020's polling errors weren't historically unprecedented in size, the industry as a whole (but especially traditional telephone pollsters) is headed for upheaval. The same was true of private polls. Throughout the cycle, Democrats rolled their eyes at Republicans' incessant ads on these themes. Pelosi can thank these missed GOP opportunities for her razor-thin majority. Toss Up Relatively few Democratic challengers aired ads inoculating themselves against these attacks. The Cook Political Report shifted eight House seats toward Democrats — and projected that the party would expand its majority in the chamber by 10 to 15 seats — in the nonpartisan prognosticator's final 2020 forecast published Monday.. Why it matters: It highlights how President Trump's polling struggles at the top of the ticket are filtering down ballot, affecting Republicans across … Copyright © 2018 by Cook Political Report. And what lessons can we draw for 2022? We keep missing people who end up turning out to vote.". It will require discipline to stick to these fundamentals when polls start to drown everything else out. The Cook Political Report said four of the races were in Texas, three of which it changed from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" and another which it said was now a "toss up." The … Had Republicans detected the true down-ballot dynamics, they could have won the House back. It categorizes all congressional districts not designated as "safe" in that map as of the time specified below the table. You can also view this forecast as … !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");t&&(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); We and other analysts wrote ad nauseum about Trump's drag on House Republicans, especially in suburban districts. 17 3 And yet, this time much of it led us and others astray. Amid the pandemic, we visited fewer districts and personally met with fewer candidates than we typically do. Had all Democrats outperformed by that much, they would have gained a dozen seats. • In fact, had Democrats performed exactly five points better on the margin in all 435 districts, every race in our "lean" and "likely" columns would have been correct, Democrats would have won 11 of the 27 Toss Ups, and they would have gained seven seats overall. Herrera Beutler. Dem The Cook Political Report's 2020 House District Databook. HOUSE SEATS. Meanwhile, of the 29 House Republican freshmen from 2018, only one wasn't a man and only one wasn't white. Before then, pollsters and analysts will have time to conduct a proper autopsy, using comprehensive voter file data, of how the polls might have failed to anticipate the 2020 electorate. Dem [CDATA[// >. RT @amyewalter: I know we don’t really do holiday parties these days, if you’re looking to drop some awesome political knowledge and trivia…, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 (202) 739-8525 info@cookpolitical.com. However, there were likely far more voters who entered the final week undecided on their congressional choice than their choice for president. Republicans Didn't Spend Significantly in 10 Races They Narrowly Lost. As of November 2, 2020 The final 2020 House forecast from The Cook Political Report. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017 ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018 ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2020 Quarterly reports," accessed September 21, 2020 The NRCC spent just $96,000 in coordinated expenditures in FL-27 and $95,000 in CA-39 — a tiny fraction of what it spent in scores of races that both parties' polls (and we) considered more competitive. But after the rise of AOC, the primaries and 'defund the police,' it was easier to paint them as radical.". But in the House, Republicans nearly swept the 27 races in our Toss Up column and won seven races in our "Lean" and "Likely" Democrat columns. In 2019, we started out with the presumption that Democrats were in a decent position to retain the majority, but had benefited from plenty of casual Trump voters not showing up in the midterms and stood to lose a few seats as those voters reentered the fold. In its final forecast for Tuesday's election, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted eight additional House seats toward Democrats and projected on Monday that the party would expand its majority in the chamber by 10 to 15. In September, an 1892 Polling survey for the NRCC showed Republican Maria Elvira Salazar ahead of Rep. Donna Shalala (FL-27) 46 percent to 43 percent. : Rep There's limited evidence for this; exit polls showed that final-week deciders in the presidential race (just five percent of voters) were only marginally more pro-Trump than the other 95 percent. Rep The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from The Cook Political Report.Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. A New York judge is wading through the electoral “errors and delays” that have marred the race between Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) and former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R), one of the last remaining uncalled races in the country, the Syracuse Post-Standard reports. For example, it may have mattered more than pundits realized that Hispanic Republicans ran against non-Hispanic, non-Spanish speaking Democrats in both FL-27 and TX-23. And in October, a Public Opinion Strategies poll showed Republican Young Kim leading Rep. Gil Cisneros 47 percent to 46 percent. 25. Of the 13 Republicans who flipped Democratic-held seats in 2020, all were women and/or minorities. The consensus of hundreds of pre-election polls conducted for both parties was that House Democrats were the ones on offense. 12 And, many paid the price. Some analysts hypothesize that polls weren't way off so much as there was a late movement towards Republicans that polls didn't pick up. 0 Cook Political Report shifted more congressional races to the left, predicting that 2020 could be an even better year for Democrats than the 2018 "blue wave." 16 An independent online political newsletter has changed its status on 20 races for the House of Representatives, saying Friday that they were all improving in the direction of Democrats. United States interactive 2020 House Cook Political Report forecast And, they won. Three are of Cuban ancestry, two were born in South Korea and one was born in Ukraine — allowing them to personalize an anti-socialism message. Why were the polls so consistently biased towards Democrats? • 1 Most chose to stay on "offense" on healthcare and COVID in their messaging. Meanwhile, of the 29 House Republican freshmen from 2018, only one wasn't a man and only one wasn't white. Our Electoral and Senate ratings generally performed well, with every race at least "leaning" to one party breaking that direction and Toss Ups breaking to the GOP — save for Georgia, where Joe Biden prevailed and both Senate races are in runoffs. Van Duyne ended up beating Valenzuela, who ran as the progressive in the Democratic primary, by a point - even though non-whites are now a majority in the suburban Dallas seat and Biden carried the district at the top of the ticket. The top three most expensive House races of 2020 — in terms of both candidate and outside spending — were California's 25th District ($37.9 million), New Mexico's 2nd District ($36.7 million) and Texas's 22nd District ($34.1 million), according to the Center for Responsive Politics. But Republicans turned the tables in 2020, and it worked. The most credible theory might be one articulated by analyst David Shor: that for years, there's been a rising correlation between low levels of social and institutional trust, higher support for President Trump, and survey non-response. In the end, women and minorities helped Republicans win six districts Trump failed to carry. Our approach to rating races in 2020 was the same as in the past: we construct our analysis based on recent election results and trends, publicly available polling and fundraising data, and hundreds of off-the-record conversations with candidates, party committees, outside groups, pollsters, consultants and state-based journalists. All Rights Reserved. And, FiveThirtyEight had Democrats leading the House ballot by 7.3 points; they won it by 3.1 points. The strongest evidence against a late surge might be the results of Washington's August top-two primary, which boded much better for Republicans than 2018's results and, in retrospect, might have been an overlooked clue.